Modelling community spread of Covid-19 without complex mathematics
April 5, 2020
Sophisticated mathematical modeling of epidemic or pandemic spread of infections is based on differential equations containing exponential functions. The sophistication of these models is essential but they have a disadvantage of being difficult or impossible to be understood by readers unfamiliar with advanced mathematics. I have developed a spreadsheet model to estimate infection rates and mortality with Covid-19 as a function of time using only a few simple assumptions.